Social Distancing - COVID-19 - v2

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1 collaborator

Muaz Niazi (Author)

WHAT IS IT?

A simple model to understand how social distancing might work for epidemics such as COVID 19 and others

HOW IT WORKS

New (2.0) Each patch infects R0 number of patches in its neighbors. In terms of recent research, we have used 3 but you can experiment with it. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-contagious-r-naught-average-patient-spread-2020-3?op=1

Also, we now allow for recovery days. So, as days of recovery come, the agent stops infecting others.

We have also added stop-time which sets the limit of the simulation time.

HOW TO USE IT

Change social distancing. Click setup and go. See how the model evolves.

THINGS TO NOTICE

With more social distancing, epidemic spread can be curtailed. Kindly note that this is not an exact replication and the model just shows one particular aspect of the epidemic

CREDITS AND REFERENCES

Comments and Questions

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Click to Run Model

patches-own [day-inf inf?]
;day-inf tells the number of day of infection

to setup
  ca
  reset-ticks
  ask patches
  [
    set pcolor green
    set day-inf 0
    set inf? false
  ]
  ask one-of patches
  [
    set pcolor red
    set day-inf 1
    set inf? true
  ]

  ask patches with [pcolor = green]
  [
    if (random 100 < distancing)
    [
      set pcolor black
    ]
  ]
end 

to go
  if count patches with [pcolor = green] = 0 or ticks = stop-time
  [
    stop
  ]

  ask patches with [pcolor = red]
  [
    set day-inf day-inf + 1
    ;Increase the day infected
    if day-inf > recov-days
    [
      set pcolor blue
    ]

    ;This basically finds a number to infect based on R0

    if pcolor = red
    [
      ask n-of ceiling (R0 / 100 * 8)  neighbors
      [
        if pcolor = green
        [
          set pcolor red
        ]
      ]
    ]
  ]
  tick
end

There is only one version of this model, created over 4 years ago by Muaz Niazi.

Attached files

File	Type	Description	Last updated
social-distancing-covid19v2 interface.png	png	Updated Interface	over 4 years ago, by Muaz Niazi	Download

Parent: Social Distancing - COVID-19 Spread

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